From US Inflation to Trump’s Tariff Policies—12 Key Factors Shaping Indian Markets

February 13, 2025: Mumbai:
Indian stock markets are set for a flat-to-positive opening on Thursday, with Gift Nifty trading at 23,140, a premium of 18 points over Nifty futures’ previous close. Global market cues remain mixed, with Asian markets rising while Wall Street ended mixed after the latest hotter-than-expected US inflation data.

Also Read: PM Modi Lands in US for First Bilateral Meeting with President Trump: Trade and Immigration on Agenda

The Sensex and Nifty 50 declined for the sixth straight session on Wednesday, as volatility persisted due to weak global trends, a depreciating rupee, and FII outflows.

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12 Key Global Cues Impacting Indian Markets Today

1. Asian Markets Rally

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.54%, while the Topix rose 0.52%.
• South Korea’s Kospi added 0.34%, with Kosdaq up by 0.45%.
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index indicated a strong opening.

2. Gift Nifty Trends

• Trading around 23,140 levels, suggesting a flat-to-positive start for Indian equities.

3. Wall Street Ends Mixed

• Dow Jones fell 0.50%, closing at 44,368.56.
• S&P 500 dropped 0.27%, ending at 6,051.97.
• Nasdaq edged up 0.03% to 19,649.95.
• Nvidia, Amazon stocks fell over 1%, while CVS Health jumped 15% and Gilead Sciences surged 7.5%.

4. US Inflation Data

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January, surpassing the expected 0.3% increase.
• Annual inflation reached 3.0%, up from 2.9% in December, sparking concerns over potential Fed policy tightening.

5. Indian CPI & Industrial Growth

• Retail inflation eased to 4.31% in January, a five-month low due to falling food prices.
• IIP growth slowed to 3.2% in December, compared to 4.4% in December 2023, indicating sluggish industrial activity.

6. Trump’s Tariff Announcement

• US President Donald Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs, set to be imposed on countries with high duties on US imports.
• India’s high tariffs on US goods have long been a point of contention, and the new tariff war could impact Indian exports.

7. Federal Reserve Policy Updates

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that inflation control is not yet complete.
• Hints at a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2025, depending on further inflation trends.

8. NCDEX to Enter Equity Markets

• The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) announced its entry into equity and equity derivatives trading, marking a strategic expansion beyond commodities.

9. Japanese Wholesale Inflation

• Wholesale price inflation rose to 4.2% in January, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase, exceeding market expectations.

10. Currency Market & USD Trends

• The US Dollar Index fell 0.03% to 107.88, after hitting a one-week high of 108.52.
• Against the yen, the dollar traded at 154.33, while the euro strengthened to $1.0398.

11. Gold Prices Rise Ahead of US PPI Data

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• Spot gold climbed 0.1% to $2,905.12 per ounce, rebounding after a 1% drop in the previous session.
• US gold futures remained stable at $2,929.60 per ounce.

12. Crude Oil Prices Dip as US-Russia Talks Progress

• Brent crude fell 0.77% to $74.60 per barrel, while WTI crude slipped 0.78% to $70.81 per barrel.
• The decline comes after Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to talks on resolving the Ukraine conflict.

Stock Market Outlook

With US inflation concerns, Trump’s tariff policies, and Fed decisions influencing global markets, traders are expected to remain cautious. Sectoral movements in IT, banking, and auto stocks will be closely watched, along with foreign investor activity and currency fluctuations.

Tags:

Stock market today, Gift Nifty trends, US inflation impact, Sensex and Nifty outlook, Trump reciprocal tariffs, Asian market rally, Jerome Powell Fed update, Crude oil prices, Gold price forecast, NCDEX equity trading, Indian CPI inflation, Indian industrial growth