Germany’s conservative Union of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) won Sunday’s national election, putting CDU leader Friedrich Merz on the cusp of becoming the next chancellor of Europe’s largest economy.  

The election comes amid strained relations between the European Union and the United States as President Donald Trump implements sharp policy changes regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, his aides’ support for right-wing populist movements on the continent and the administration’s proposed tariffs on European imports, among other issues.

The tensions have fuelled calls for the EU to reduce its reliance on Washington for defense and rethink its global partnerships.

Merz said Europe needed to “achieve independence” from the US and called for a strengthening of defense cooperation within the EU bloc.

What’s the view from China?

Besides a confrontational Trump administration and a hostile Russia, the new German government will also have to deal with an assertive China.

China is one of Germany’s top trading partners, with bilateral commerce amounting to €246.3 billion ($259 billion) in 2024.

But Germany and the European Union view China as not only a partner, but also a competitor and a “systemic rival.”

When asked about the German election outcome, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said that Beijing stands ready to work with the new German government to boost bilateral ties.

Xuewu Gu, a professor of international relations at the University of Bonn, believes the new German government will likely relax restrictions on Chinese investment and, together with the EU, push for a trade and investment pact with Beijing.

“In the event of a trade war with the US, Germany has no choice but to strengthen cooperation with China,” Gu said.

India ‘does not anticipate upheavals’

While German firms have long focused on the Chinese market, India has also become increasingly important over the past few years, as the South Asian nation’s economy records rapid growth.

Trade between Germany and India stood at a record high of €30.9 billion in 2024.

Berlin last year also passed a raft of measures designed to attract skilled Indian workers to fill gaps in Germany’s labor market.

Gurjit Singh, a former ambassador of India to Germany, said that the relationship between both countries “has been assiduously built up by both the CDU and SPD [Social Democratic Party] and therefore should be able to continue.”

He also stressed that the world is changing rapidly and relations between major powers were influenced by new dynamics.

“India views Germany and Europe as an important pole in a multi-polar order. India believes that it has bipartisan support with Germany and therefore does not anticipate upheavals,” he said.

Gulshan Sachdeva, chief coordinator of the Global South Centre of Excellence, said that, at a time of turmoil in trans-Atlantic relations, Merz is poised to play a key role in shaping a more independent Europe.

“Russia poses a strategic challenge, while Germany’s disenchantment with China is growing. Moreover, Merz has expressed doubts about NATO’s future and is reconsidering nuclear deterrence,” said Sachdeva.

“This might encourage India to explore more robust partnerships with Europe, potentially benefiting from a more autonomous European foreign policy.”

Can Merz work with the Taliban on migration?

During the election campaign, Merz vowed a “fundamental” overhaul of Germany’s asylum rules following a series of deadly attacks blamed on asylum-seekers. The violent incidents in recent months has hardened public attitudes toward irregular migration.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) benefited from the situation, securing 20.8% of the vote, which is the party’s strongest result to date at the federal level.

Merz pledged to impose tough border controls and step up deportations of rejected asylum-seekers, even to Afghanistan. During the election campaign, Merz said the next government must be “prepared to negotiate with the Taliban” in order to step up deportations of Afghan migrants.

Mojib Atal, a migration researcher at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), said that “while Merz still requires a coalition partner, stricter migration laws can be anticipated under the next German government.”

But some Afghanistan experts warn that engagement with the Taliban could contribute to the normalization of the Islamic fundamentalist group. The Taliban regime has committed numerous human rights violations, including barring Afghan women from most aspects of public life and education.

Wazhma Tokhi, an exiled Afghan women’s rights activist and education campaigner currently based in Germany, said that the idea of opening talks with the Taliban “is more than just troubling.”

“It is a devastating blow to Afghan women, activists, and refugees who placed their hopes in Germany’s commitment to human rights. It is a betrayal of those who have fought, suffered, and lost everything in the struggle for freedom,” she told DW.

Tokhi said by holding talks with the Taliban, “we risk sacrificing Afghan women on the altar of political pragmatism.”

She added: “Any talks with the Taliban must come with unwavering demands for human rights, especially the rights of women. Anything less is complicity in their oppression.”

An opportunity to build stronger ties?

In Iran, state media extensively covered the German election results, with some highlighting the increase in votes for the AfD party.

On social media, many Iranian users wrote they expect the new German government to take a tougher stance on Tehran.

Some also highlighted Merz’s invitation for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit Germany in defiance of an arrest warrant for the Israeli leader issued by the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes in Gaza. The move is seen as a clear message to Iran’s Islamic theocratic regime. 

In Indonesia, Evi Fitriani, a professor of international relations at Universitas Indonesia, expects no major changes with Germany under the new government.

“Germany has long been considered a key partner from Europe that is quite supportive, especially in trade and environmental relations,” she said, adding that the expectation now is to maintain good relations and open better business opportunities. 

“In the past, Europe aligned closely with the US. However, with Trump’s isolationist and America-centric approach, this presents an opportunity for Asia and Europe to build stronger ties,” she told DW.

“Good relationships always start with trade. Germany’s primary interest is trade, while Asia needs investment, technology, and trade partners. This presents an opportunity.”

Murali Krishnan from New Delhi, Youhanna Najdi from DW Farsi, Zamzama Niazai from DW Dari/Pashto, Muhammad Hanafi from DW Indonesia, and our colleagues from DW Chinese contributed to this report. 

Edited by: Darko Janjevic