Asia-Pacific nations are bracing themselves for a reprise of “America First” under a second Donald Trump presidency, which experts say may pack fewer surprises but make them pay more for their defence and exports – while sharing the bill for a US retreat from common climate goals.

Eight years ago, Trump’s first term brought shock and unpredictability as he yanked the US from trade and climate deals, and imposed damaging tariffs on China that rerouted global supply chains. He also shunned Asian allies at diplomatic forums as the US stepped back from global leadership.

Summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hogged headlines but yielded little as Trump hooked his four-year term to a mercurial, transactional approach to geopolitics and an unshakable faith in his ability to secure the deals America wanted.

But a return of the 78-year-old to power signals that America’s experiment with isolation is in fact a long-term directional change, analysts say.

This time, however, Asian leaders should be better placed to navigate the tremors to come.

“He [Trump] is going to try and do everything possible to promote American interests at the expense of other nations,” said Biswajit Dhar, distinguished professor at the Council for Social Development. “With the mandate he has got, he will do it with additional gusto.”