by Akemi Tamanaha

As votes are still being counted, AAPI researchers and voting rights advocates are starting to unpack the data released in national exit polls.

NBC News and CNN have both cited exit polling data that says 54% of Asian voters voted for Kamala Harris and 39% voted for Donald Trump. NBC News also noted that national exit polling data showed Asians had shifted five points to the right.

But many experts, including AAPI researchers, have warned against creating broad narratives from exit poll data.

“…the national election poll data does not provide Asian language support, and it is not designed to be representative of the Asian American population, or, say, the Latino population or the Black population,” Karthick Ramakrishnan, founder of AAPI Data, said at data briefing hosted by APIA Vote and AAPI Data on Wednesday.

According to Ramakrishnan, the national election poll data serves as a predictive tool rather than a comprehensive data set.

Despite limitations, researchers at AAPI Data have begun to examine the 2024 exit polls and compare the results to other data sets. Ramakrishnan spoke about the trends in support over time. Asian American support for the Democratic presidential candidate peaked in over a decade ago, jumping from 31% in 1992 to 73% in 2012.

“What is fascinating to see is a steady decline in Asian American support for the Democratic presidential candidate since the peak in 2012,” Ramakrishnan said, noting that there has also been a steady increase in support of the Republican presidential candidate.

Ramakrishnan said that voters’ perceptions of the economy and what they believe each party will do for the economy could impact who they support, even if their perceptions do not match reality.

“And as past political science research indicates, when people vote on the economy, it’s not just about their personal pocketbook, but of their perception of the economy in general,” he said.

In September, AAPI Data and APIA Vote conducted a voter survey and asked respondents what their “make or break” issues were for the election. The answers often differed by party but both AAPI Democrats and AAPI Republicans listed immigration as an important issue.

According to the survey, 62% of AAPI Democrats said immigration was a very important issue for them, and that they wouldn’t vote for a candidate that didn’t share their views on immigration. 67% of AAPI Republicans said that immigration was a very important issue, but likely for different reasons.

“I think the data that we see in the future will also bear this out,” Janelle Wong, a lead researcher at AAPI Data said.

AAPI Data will continue to release data and analysis on the 2024 election results in the coming weeks.

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