ASTANA – The population growth alongside the expanding young workforce reflects the strength of the Central Asian economy, studies show.

Central Asian region’s population stands at 81 million, with growth at 3.7% annually from 2021. Uzbekistan is the most populous country in Central Asia, accounting for 45% of the region’s total population, according to the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) Macroeconomic Outlook 2025-2027.

Analytical Credit Rating Agency’s (ACRA) study reports that the five Central Asian states have experienced an average annual population growth rate of 1-2% over the past three decades. In 1991, the region had a population of 51 million, and by early 2024, this number had risen to 81 million.

The study shows that the region is characterized by steady population growth and increasing life expectancy. This trend has led to a growing workforce and increased consumption, enhancing the region’s economic potential.

According to ACRA analysts, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are currently the most dynamic economies in the region. The Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan, on the other hand, exhibit highly volatile economic growth, while Kazakhstan, as the region’s largest economy, experiences more stable and consistent growth rates.

Kazakhstan’s demographic trends

According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the population of Kazakhstan surpassed 20 million people. As of December, the growth rate compared to the beginning of 2024 reached 1.2%. The total population growth is 231,478 people, with 94% of this increase attributed to natural growth. 

Ayaulym Sagynbaeva, head of the Center for the Study of Xenophobia at the Institute of Applied Ethnopolitical Research, notes that Kazakhstan has not experienced a positive migration balance for a long time, although there are regional variations.

“We cannot compare our demographic indicators with developed countries because birth rates are low there. According to World Population Prospects and other international rankings showing the total fertility rate, Kazakhstan has a high birth rate. In 2023, the country had a population growth of 2.9%,” Sagynbaeva told Kazinform news agency.

A high fertility rate is a key factor contributing to natural population growth in Kazakhstan. The country experienced a baby boom in 2020-2021, during which the total fertility rate peaked at 3.3 children per woman of reproductive age.

However, as Sagynbaeva points out, the birth rate is gradually declining, which is an important indicator of Kazakhstan’s demographic trends. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the number of births dropped by 4.2% last year. From January to September 2024, 278,700 children were born in Kazakhstan, with the birth rate standing at 18.47 per 1,000 people, down from 19.54 the previous year.

The highest number of births occurred in the Turkistan and Almaty regions and Almaty city, while the lowest was recorded in the North Kazakhstan, East Kazakhstan, and Ulytau regions.

Sagynbaeva notes that demographic sustainability should be correlated with demographic security to determine whether demographic growth is a benefit or a risk. A growing young workforce might be supporting economic growth, but it is crucial to first address challenges related to access to affordable education.

“In 2020-2021, people celebrated the near-record number of births in the country—around 900,000 children over two years. However, we now face a shortage of kindergartens. Besides, in the next year or two, the issue of school education will also need to be addressed. There is already a significant shortage of school places in the west and south of Kazakhstan, as well as in Astana. As a result, regional differences are becoming more apparent in the demographic landscape. In terms of infrastructure, we are not yet ready to accommodate such a large population,” said Sagynbaeva.

The article was originally published on Kazinform.