Conspiracy theories have always been central to violent extremism narratives in South Asia across the extremist ideological spectrum. They assist extremist networks in articulating their ideological worldviews to their constituents in a digestible manner. Conspiracy theories not only increase the appeal of extremist groups among vulnerable people searching for oversimplistic answers to complex issues but construct the us versus them and good versus evil binaries as well.

In recent years, the role of conspiracy theories has become more pronounced in South Asia’s violent extremist landscape, beyond constructing binary narratives and providing simple answers to complex questions. Conspiracy theories have acted as fomenters of violent incidents in South Asia. Be it the jihadist groups or a myriad of Hindutva or Buddhist factions, conspiracy theories have driven the violent acts of their adherents.

Three factors undergird the evolving role of conspiracy theories in fomenting extremist violence in South Asia.

First, due to the deeper penetration of social media platforms, conspiracy theories have moved from the margins of political discourse to the center stage, becoming an inseparable part of mainstream politics. The presence of conspiracy theories as well as followers of violent extremist groups on social media have created a new extremist ecosystem in South Asia where the former’s role has been redefined.

Second, the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in center-staging conspiracy theories as fomenters of violent extremism cannot be ignored. Alongside the pandemic, an infodemic facilitated conspiratorial narratives concerning COVID-19’s origins, lockdowns, and vaccines.

Restricted mobility forced people to spend most of their time on the internet, which left them vulnerable to conspiracy theories and violent extremist ideologies. The extremist groups fully exploited the opportunities created by the coronavirus and appropriated it in their narratives for ideological validation. For instance, al-Qaida termed COVID-19 as “God’s smallest soldier” striking the West, while the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group termed it as God’s wrath on the infidels for waging a war against the “Caliphate.” At any rate, the pandemic played a crucial role in redefining the role of conspiracy theories in the context of violent extremism. Critically, it lowered the entry barriers to violent extremism and exposed people to new and novel forms of violence. In India, several Hindutva groups termed the first major vector of coronavirus among the Tableeghi Jamaat’s congregants in New Delhi as “corona jihad.”

Third, the evolving role of ideologies within South Asian violent extremist groups has also created space for conspiracy theories to play a prominent role in fomenting extremist violence. The proliferation of multiple ideologies as well as the greater role of technology as the main medium of recruitment, communication, propaganda, and fundraising has undermined the role of ideology. This has birthed a new culture of conspiracism where repetition of unverifiable claims has assumed greater importance than evidence. As a result, hybrid ideologies are emerging where people cherry-pick different narratives on the internet based on their personal grievances while looking for a sense of belonging or meaning in life.

In South Asia, the most vivid and longstanding conspiracy theory among the jihadist groups is about the polio vaccine. The jihadist groups maintain that the poliovirus vaccination is aimed at reducing male fertility to control the growing Muslim population. These conspiracy theories gained more traction in the aftermath of the 2010 Abbottabad operation to kill al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden.

Prior to launching the operation, the United States took the help of a local doctor Shakil Afridi to run a fake Hepatitis B campaign to collect blood samples of bin Laden’s family for DNA tests for confirmation. People erroneously believe that Afridi ran a polio vaccination campaign. At any rate, following the Abbottabad operation, jihadist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan looked at polio vaccination campaigns with great skepticism. They believed that such campaigns were funded by the U.S. to gather intelligence about jihadist groups. Ironically, despite al-Qaida’s own admission, some jihadist groups still believe that bin Laden was not killed in Abbottabad.

On the other side of the ideological spectrum, Hindutva groups have used several conspiratorial notions to justify communal violence against Indian Muslims. The most notorious and bizarre among Hindutva conspiracies is love and land jihad. Some states in India have even passed laws against love jihad. The notion of “love jihad” refers to a conspiracy that Muslim men get into romantic relationships with Hindu women to marry them and convert them to Islam. Peddlers of love jihad conspiracy theories believe it is part of a covert war that Muslims are waging against the Hindu civilization in India. Likewise, “land jihad” refers to alleged efforts by Muslims to acquire Hindu lands to deprive them of their ancestral holdings.

Another conspiracy theory among Hindutva groups is concerning the rapidly growing population of Muslims in India. Hindutva adherents conspiratorially believe that the birth rate among Indian Muslims is higher than other faith groups and that it is aimed at outnumbering Hindus in India to reclaim their lost rule. They conspiratorially refer to it as “population jihad.”

More or less, similar conspiracy theories drove violence against the Muslim and Hindu minorities in post-civil war Sri Lanka and in Bangladesh after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster.

The growing role of conspiracy theories in fomenting extremist violence in South Asia is concerning where long-standing communal, ethnic, and political fault-lines can accelerate violent incidents into crises and conflicts. Robust fact-checking, a strong working relationship between governments, civil society, and tech/social media companies as well as digital literacy and critical thinking are necessary to create firewalls against conspiracy theories leading to violent extremism in South Asia.