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Election Results 2024 Share Market Live Updates : India’s stock futures rose, extending Monday’s surge, as investors awaited the final result of the marathon six-week election that concluded over the weekend.
June contracts on the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced as much as 0.4% in early trading on Tuesday, following a 3.3% gain in the underlying benchmark in the previous session. The Nifty 50’s biggest surge in more than three years came after exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies would secure more than 350 of the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament.
Results are expected to be announced today. The Election Commission of India will begin counting votes at 8am local time, with broad trends likely to emerge within a few hours. Opposition leaders have dismissed the polls, holding onto their predictions that their alliance of more than 20 groups, led by the Indian National Congress, would win 295 seats.
Australian and New Zealand bonds rallied, tracking gains in Treasuries after weak US data bolstered bets for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Asian shares declined.
Treasuries rose across the curve Monday after data showed factory activity shrank at a faster pace as output came close to stagnating, with 10-year yields sinking 11 basis points to 4.39%. Australia’s equivalent yield fell six basis points in early Tuesday trading, while New Zealand’s slipped seven basis points.
Shares in South Korea and Japan edged lower in early Tuesday trading while those in Australia were flat. Futures also pointed to a soft open in Hong Kong, with contracts for US were little changed.
The dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 counterparts. Asian currencies such as the Malaysian ringgit and South Korean won strengthened.
US data indicated manufacturing is struggling to gain momentum due to high borrowing costs, restrained investment in equipment and softer consumer spending. At the same time, producers are battling elevated input costs.
“The Manufacturing ISM data reaffirmed several prevailing economic trends: decelerating inflation, slowing growth, and a tight labor market,” said Gary Pzegeo at CIBC Private Wealth US. “We should see higher odds of a rate cut later this year priced into interest rate futures.”
Swap contracts tied to upcoming meetings continue to fully price in a quarter-point rate cut in December, with the odds of a move as soon as September edging up to around 50% and November also given high odds.
“There have been a few signs of stumbling in the real economy, albeit primarily on the consumption side,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets. “As a result, investors are on guard for indications that the downside trajectory is accelerating.”
The S&P 500 turned green in the final minutes of trading as a rally in big tech outweighed a plunge in energy producers. A technical issue at the New York Stock Exchange resulted in erroneous trading volatility halts earlier Monday.
Oil tumbled as OPEC rolled out a plan to restore some production to the market this year. Bitcoin briefly topped $70,000.
In Asia, two data releases on Monday from China may have encouraged investors that its moribund economy was finally starting to gain some post-pandemic traction. Shanghai and Shenzhen saw improvements in homebuyer sentiment last weekend after relaxing property restrictions, the first positive signs in months for the embattled real estate sector.
Meanwhile, a private survey showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in almost two years in May, contrasting with weak official data that dented the country’s growth outlook.
With the US earnings season mostly in the rearview mirror, traders will focus on whether inflation is cooling or is stuck in a loop that will leave interest rates in “higher-for-longer’ limbo,” according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “This week’s jobs report represents the next big test.”
In fact, traders will also be focused on a slew of labor-market readings this week, including Friday’s payrolls figures.
“Additional cooling in job openings this week would also help to bring home the message that the labor market is no longer a meaningful threat for near-term inflation dynamics,” said Oscar Munoz at TD Securities.
Election Results 2024 Share Market Impact Live : 2024 Lok Sabha vote counting update
Election Results 2024 Share Market Impact Live : Early vote counting numbers for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections showed NDA leading in 109 constituencies, while the INDI Alliance was leading in 79 seats.
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Election Results 2024 Share Market Impact Live : What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on Election Results 2024 day
Election Results 2024 Share Market Impact Live : As the 2024 Lok Sabha election results are set to be announced today, the Indian stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are poised for a robust opening. The Gift Nifty, trading around the 23,570 level, indicates a promising start for the Indian benchmark index, showing a premium of nearly 160 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
Exit polls project Prime Minister Narendra Modi to retain power for a third consecutive term, suggesting a significant victory for the BJP-led alliance in the lower house of the parliament. This political forecast has invigorated investors, leading to a sharp rally in domestic equity indices on Monday. The Nifty 50 had formed a hammer-like pattern, marking its best session in over three years.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research at 5Paisa.com, expressed optimism about the market’s upward trend. He noted that the Nifty 50 index ended well above the previous hurdle of 23,100 – 23,000, suggesting a potential continuation of the uptrend following the election results. He identified 23,100 – 23,000 as the immediate support, with possible targets around 23,700 followed by 24,000 – 24,200 on the higher side. (Read the full story here.)
Election Results 2024 Share Market Impact Live : Eight key things that changed for Indian stock market overnight – Gift Nifty, US PMI to bond yields
Election Results 2024 Share Market Impact Live : The Indian stock market is set to open higher today, coinciding with the announcement of the 2024 Lok Sabha election results. Exit polls predict a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sparking a record surge in the Indian equity market. Both Sensex and Nifty 50 indices rose over 3% on Monday, marking the largest single-day rally since January 2021.
In contrast, Asian markets traded lower, and the US stock market had a mixed performance overnight. Weak US manufacturing data has increased the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this year, with traders now estimating a 59% chance for a rate cut in September.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, expressed confidence in the market reaching new highs due to the ruling party’s projected majority, positive macro trends, and robust corporate earnings. He suggested focusing on manufacturing, capex, infrastructure, and financials for long-term investment. (Read the full story here.)
Election Results 2024 Share Market Impact Live : Gift Nifty, global and domestic cues signal another day of market rally as 2024 Lok Sabha election’s vote counting begins
Election Results 2024 Share Market Impact Live : India stock futures edged higher and the rupee was steady as votes in the world’s largest election were set to be counted on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi widely expected to score a decisive mandate and a rare third term.
Exit polls have projected a big win for Modi, leading to markets soaring to record highs on Monday as investors were buoyed by expectations of sustained economic growth.
The voting results trends will start from 0230 GMT (8 am local time).
On Tuesday, NIFTY 50 index futures rose 0.21% in early trade, according to NSE International Exchange data, and was looking at another record high open.
The Nifty index ended up 3.25% at 23,263.90 points on Monday after touching a record high of 23,338.70 in the wake of exit polls.
The BSE index closed up 3.39% at 76,468.78 points on Monday, just off its lifetime peak of 76,738.89 hit earlier.
Early trade in the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market pointed to a slightly firmer rupee on Tuesday. In the spot NDF market the rupee traded at 83.1000 to the dollar, against a close of 83.1425 in the spot foreign exchange market on Monday. The rupee rose 0.4% on Monday.
Asian share markets were mildly weaker on Tuesday as global investors consider the prospect the U.S. economy’s ‘exceptionalism’ is starting to unwind as manufacturing activity in the world’s largest economy further weakened.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.1%, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with mild gains. The index is up 1.6% so far this month.
Australian shares were down 0.21%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index slid 0.77%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was flat in early trade and China’s CSI300 Index off 0.16%.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes reached 4.4001% compared with its U.S. close of 4.402% on Monday. The two-year yield, which rises with traders’ expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.8184% compared with a U.S. close of 4.818%.
On Monday, U.S. Treasury yields fell to the lowest point in two weeks, after the country’s manufacturing activity slipped for the second consecutive month in May.
The 2-year yield was 6 basis points lower while the 10-year yield was down 11 basis points.
“The sharper move at the long-end is a sign that weaker manufacturing data is unlikely to shift the dial on Fed rate cuts near term, but is perhaps a signal of the market’s view of neutral interest rates as US economic exceptionalism fades,” Westpac economist Jameson Coombs said in a note on Tuesday.
There was now 40 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2024 priced into financial markets expectations, he added.
In Europe, investors expect the European Central Bank on Thursday to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 index edged up 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%.
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to win a record-equalling third consecutive term in office on Tuesday when the 642 million votes cast in the world’s largest election are counted.
The outcome is expected to be positive for the country’s financial markets, according to analysts, on the hope India will under further economic reform.
The dollar rose 0.16% against the yen to 156.35 in Asian trading on Tuesday. It is still some distance from its high this year of 160.03 in late April.
The European single currency was up 0.1% on the day at $1.0912, having gained 0.65% in a month, while the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was down at 104.
U.S. crude dipped 0.42% to $73.91 a barrel. Brent crude fell to $78.05 per barrel. Both benchmarks slid to four-month lows on Monday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together known as OPEC , agreed to start unwinding some production cuts from October.
“Most commodity analysts had expected the production cuts to be maintained till the end of the year,” NAB economists said.
Gold was slightly higher. Spot gold was traded at $2350.7266 per ounce.