Last month, two key members of the anti-junta Brotherhood Alliance – Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – said they were willing to hold peace talks under China’s mediation. The announcement came shortly after a visit to Beijing by junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.

Angshuman Choudhary, a doctoral candidate at the National University of Singapore and King’s College London, said the statements by TNLA and MNDAA underscored the leverage China has over the conflict in Myanmar.

“India will be watching this closely, with some degree of anxiety. It’s no surprise that we have seen a flurry of high-level engagements between India and the State Administration Council [SAC] in recent weeks,” said Choudhary, a researcher on Myanmar issues.

“New Delhi will be concerned that the SAC would move closer to China to protect itself. India would ideally want to have similar leverage over the SAC and some ethnic groups, such as the Arakan Army and the Chin National Front.”

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), another ethnic armed group, has sent a delegation to China for talks.