In the 2018 mayoral race, Breed and then-Supervisor Jane Kim, a progressive Korean American candidate, split the Chinatown area. Breed won most of the city’s Asian American precincts. But this year, much of Breed’s moderate Chinese voter base is widely expected to support her moderate opponents Farrell and Lurie, and possibly Supervisor Aaron Peskin, a progressive candidate who has high name recognition in the Chinese community. Peskin has represented Chinatown on the Board of Supervisors for almost two decades.

In a text message, Peskin expressed confidence in his Chinese American support. He suggested that many of Breed’s supporters in the Chinese American merchant community might back him too under the city’s ranked-choice system.

David Ho, a political consultant, predicted that Peskin will win Chinatown precincts. But he said it’s unclear who the front-runners are for the large chunk of Chinese voters on the west and south sides of the city.

“I think the Chinese votes will be split this time,” Ho told The Standard. “Is that good or bad for the community, as the voting power is being neutralized?”

Overall, Ho said, Chinatown and most of the majority Chinese American districts vote similarly, but Chinatown voters may be slightly more progressive when it comes to rent control and affordable housing issues, while Chinese voters on the south side and in the Sunset are considered more conservative.

Donald Luu serves as president of the SF Chinese Chamber of Commerce in Chinatown but lives on the west side. He attended Peskin’s campaign fundraising event and Breed’s Chinatown press conference as a supporter. He said Peskin is a longtime friend — but in the mayor’s race, he’s hoping to see a moderate prevail.

“I need a mayor that can work with both sides, and the policy needs to be in the middle,” Luu said. “The city gets worse when one side gets too much influence.”