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Sensex Today Live Updates : Asian stocks traded cautiously ahead of key inflation data that will help shape the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
Australian shares edged higher as did futures for the Hong Kong equity benchmark. Japanese stocks declined, with trading in the region likely to be muted by holidays in countries including Singapore. Contracts for US equities were steady after the S&P 500 fell as much as 0.8% before finishing 0.1% higher.
Treasuries leveled in early Asian trading after advancing Tuesday, with 10-year yields dropping from the highest levels this year.
With no relevant economic data on schedule, US traders positioned for Wednesday’s consumer price index. Markets have been tempering bets on Fed cuts as economic data remain strong, with officials pushing back against the need for easing.
“CPI is the critical number this week,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “The fear is that CPI has continued to be a thorn in the side of the Fed. But positioning is strongly bearish, and to quote some of the old traders we worked with in the past, ‘whatever hurts the most traders, when they are strongly positioned, is what happens’.”
The movement in Japanese stocks came after central bank Governor Kazuo Ueda avoided sounding clearly dovish when discussing monetary easing Tuesday. Ueda’s remarks come as yen traders keep a high guard against a potential currency intervention by Japan.
Elsewhere in Asia, central banks in New Zealand and Thailand are expected to keep rates unchanged at meetings on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may push back against investor bets that interest-rate cuts are coming, even though the economy has slumped into a double-dip recession, which may give a boost for the nation’s currency.
In commodities, oil held a two-day decline after an industry report pointed to a gain in US crude stockpiles, although simmering tensions in the Middle East are expected to cap losses. Meanwhile, gold extended its bull run to a fresh record.
After struggling throughout most of the session, the S&P 500 rose back above the 5,200 mark, with Tesla Inc. leading gains in megacaps. Nvidia Corp. sank as Intel Corp. unveiled a new version of its artificial-intelligence chip.
The US inflation prints for March and April will play an outsized role in determining whether the Fed proceeds to cut rates in June, according to Krishna Guha at Evercore.
The swaps market is pricing in around 65 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of this year — which is less than what the central bank forecast last month.
Sensex Today Live : What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on April 10
Sensex Today Live : The Indian stock market, represented by the Sensex and Nifty 50 indices, is projected to start the day on a positive note, despite mixed signals from the global market. The Gift Nifty trends suggest a gap-up opening for the Indian benchmark index, trading around the 22,820 mark, nearly 85 points above the previous close of Nifty futures.
On Tuesday, the domestic equity benchmark indices couldn’t maintain their intraday gains, ending slightly lower due to profit booking at record-high levels. The Sensex dropped by 58.80 points to close at 74,683.70, while the Nifty 50 index fell by 23.55 points, or 0.1%, to settle at 22,642.75.
The Nifty 50 formed a minor negative candle on the daily chart at new all-time highs. “Technically, this pattern suggests market fatigue at new highs. The Nifty is currently near the critical overhead resistance of the ascending resistance line and the significant Fibonacci extension around 22,750 – 22,800 levels,” stated Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. (Read the full story here.)
Sensex Today Live : Seven key things that changed for market overnight – Gift Nifty, US Treasury yields to oil prices
Sensex Today Live : The local stock market is predicted to start off on a positive note on Wednesday, despite the mixed signals from global markets. Asian markets mostly saw a downturn, while US stocks had a mixed close the previous night, with key inflation data on the horizon.
Attention of market players will now shift towards the inflation data from the US and China, as well as the minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, all set to be unveiled later today.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, anticipates the positive trend to persist, backed by robust Q4 business updates and solid macroeconomic data. As the earnings season commences, individual stock movements are expected to keep the market lively. Stocks related to agriculture and rural sectors are projected to garner attention, following Skymet’s prediction of a normal monsoon for India in 2024. (Read the full story here.)
Sensex Today Live : Asian peers muted, Gift Nifty indicates positive sentiment for Indian markets
Sensex Today Live : Indian stock markets were likely top open on a positive note, led by expectations of a robust Q4 earnings season, as indicated by the buoyancy in Gifty Nifty futures.
At 8:20 am, the Gift Nifty was at 22,823, nearly 200 points ahead of Nifty 50’s Tuesday close of 22,642.75, indicating that investors were not weighed down much by the muted sentiment flowing from global peers.
Asian stocks were muted as investors kept watch for possible intervention by Japanese authorities to stop the yen’s decline and awaited U.S. inflation data later on Wednesday for clues to future interest rate moves.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.2%, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with mild gains. The index is up 0.2% so far this month.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was at 4.3636% compared with its U.S. close of 4.366% on Tuesday. The two-year yield, which rises with traders’ expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.7426% compared with a U.S. close of 4.747%.
Australian shares were up 0.3% in early trade, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index was down 0.41%. The Nikkei is looking to test 40,000 points again, with the yen’s slide seen helping fuel that push.
However, further weakness in the Japanese currency could prompt authorities to intervene, especially if the yen breaks 152 per dollar.
In Asian trade, the dollar dropped 0.01% against the yen to 151.76. The currency is getting closer to its high this year of 151.97 on March 27. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.7% early while China’s blue chip CSI300 index was flat.
U.S. consumer price data due on Wednesday will be closely watched by investors as they seek direction on the next move in interest rates. The data is expected to show a rise in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, from 3.2% in February.
“Markets are looking at the data to answer one question: is inflation sticky or is the disinflation progress in line with Fed’s expectations?,” ANZ’s economists said. “We think the data will suggest that inflation pressures are waning slowly.”
The prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut as early as June is now being considered by financial markets, with the inflation reading seen as key to the central bank’s next move.
In the U.S., the Dow Jones index finished down 0.02%, the S&P 500 gained 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3%. U.S. crude ticked up slightly to $85.31 a barrel. Brent crude was flat at $89.42 per barrel. Gold was slightly higher. Spot gold traded at $2,352.93 per ounce.
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