Download
Sensex Today Live Updates : Indian markets in the week starting July 22 are likely to remain jittery for the first few days as investors digest a raft of news reports, from incumbent US President Joe Biden pulling back from the nomination of the Democratic party in the US, which clears the way for current US Vice President Kamala Harris to pitch for her nomination on the Democratic party ticket for the US Presidential election.
The emerging election landscape in the US is likely to have an impact on markets around the world, including India.
That apart, closer home, with the markets awaiting the presentation of Budget 2024 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday, 23 July, punters in the market will be looking for bargains and discounts and the opportunity presented by the impact of volatility that so many factors will have on the markets for the next few days.
Meanwhile, the Gift Nifty index was trading at 24,416, compared to the Nifty 50 close of 24,530 in Friday’s trading session, indicating a muted start to Monday’s trading session, amid expectations of heightened volatility.
Chinese government bonds rose after the central bank cut a key policy rate. The dollar slipped after Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
The yield on China’s 10-year sovereign note slid nearly 2 basis points, after the People’s Bank of China reduced a short-term rate for the first time in almost a year, stepping up support for growth. The country’s 10-year bond futures rose to a record high.
Chinese stocks dropped in early trade, adding to regional declines from Japan to Australia amid continued weakness in the tech sector. US equities futures edged up.
A Bloomberg gauge of the US currency’s strength shed 0.1% Monday, with Treasuries steady. The Mexican peso climbed, gold gained, Bitcoin rose to the highest in over a month.
Investors have mulled for weeks a greater prospect that Donald Trump will win the November election following Biden’s weak debate performance, only for bets on a Trump win to accelerate last week following an assassination attempt on the Republican candidate a week ago. The question for investors is whether to stick with such trades now that Biden has dropped his bid for reelection.
“Facing bombshell surprises for the second week in a row, the Asian market will be under intense scrutiny,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at IG Markets. “The accelerated wave of risk aversion could hit Asian stocks harder than the previous week as investors digest the unfamiliar political context. The forex market will also feel the heightened pressure.”
The S&P 500 dropped 0.7% on Friday to cap its worst week since April. Tech shares fell ahead of earnings reports this week, while CrowdStrike Holdings Inc., the firm behind a massive IT failure that grounded flights and disrupted corporations around the world, slumped as much as 15% before paring losses.
Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. will be the first of the “Magnificent Seven” to report earnings on Tuesday. Analysts will likely press Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle giant on the progress of its plans for robotaxis. And investors will delve into the details of Google’s parent revenue boost from artificial intelligence.
Instead, President Xi Jinping at the weekend unveiled sweeping plans to bolster the finances of China’s indebted local governments as the ruling Communist Party announced its long-term blueprint for the world’s second-largest economy. Those are centered around shifting more revenue from the central to local coffers, such as by allowing regional governments to receive a larger share of consumption tax.
“Like most documents of this kind, it did not say how Chinese leaders intended to reach those goals, many of which would require policies that are contradictory in nature,” said Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY Mellon. “The contradiction of China growth vs. stability are hanging over APAC markets and flows, still leaving Chinese yuan and commodities a key focus.”
Chinese banks cut their main benchmark lending rate for the first time since August 2023, ramping up support for economic growth following the PBOC’s rate reduction.
Elsewhere this week, traders will be focused on economic activity data in Europe, US second quarter growth and a slew of corporate earnings. The Bank of Canada will give a rate decision while the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation is also due.
Sensex Today Live : Opening Bell
Sensex Today Live : Indian benchmark indices were muted on Monday, ahead of the presentation of the Budget 2024 on Tuesday, 23 July. Other factors, like incumbent POTUS Joe Biden’s decision to pull back from the US Election 2024, were also likely to weigh on the market sentiment
At opening bell, Sensex was down 439.17 points, or 0.54%, at 80,165.48 and Nifty was down 133.60 points, or 0.54%, at 24,397.30.
Sensex Today Live : Benchmark indices down at pre-open
Sensex Today Live : Indian benchmark indices were down at pre-open on Monday, ahead of the presentation of the Budget 2024 on Tuesday, 23 July. Other factors, like incumbent POTUS Joe Biden’s decision to pull back from the US Election 2024, also weighed on the market.
Sensex was down 197.35 points, or 0.24%, at 80,407.30 and Nifty was down 76.20 points, or 0.31%, at 24,454.70 during pre-open.
Sensex Today Live : Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, says the pressure on the broader market is likely to continue
Sensex Today Live : “Going into the Budget the market will be trading cautiously. The pressure on the broader market is likely to continue since there is more scope for profit booking.
It is important to understand that the market expects a positive Budget which is growth oriented and fiscally prudent with income tax reliefs for the middle class. Also the market expects status quo on the Long Term Capital Gains taxation. If there is any disappointment in these areas the market can react negatively. On the other hand, if the Budget delivers on expectations, aggressive retail buying can lift the market to new highs.
President Biden opting out of the presidential race is unlikely to influence the market now. Market will wait for clarity to emerge on Trump’s winning chances.”
–Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services
Sensex Today Live : Gift Nifty signals muted start for markets on day of start of Budget session
Sensex Today Live : Indian markets in the week starting July 22 are likly to remain jittery for the first few days as investors digest a raft of news reports, from incumbent US President Joe Biden pulling back from the nomination of the Democratic party in the US, which clears the way for current US Vice President Kamala Harris to pitch for her nomination on the Democratic party ticket for the US Presidential election.
The emerging election landscape in the US is likely to have an impact on markets around the world, including India.
That apart, closer home, with the markets awaiting the presentation of Budget 2024 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday, 23 July, punters in the market will be looking for bargains and discounts and the opportunity presented by the impact of volatility that so many factors will have on the markets for the next few days.
Meanwhile, the Gift Nifty index was trading at 24,416, compared to the Nifty 50 close of 24,530 in Friday’s trading session, indicating a muted start to Monday’s trading session, amid expectations of heightened volatility.
Asian shares slid anew on Monday, getting little lift from a surprise rate cut by China’s central bank, while Wall Street futures firmed in the wake of President Joe Biden’s decision to bow out of the election race.
The People’s Bank of China cut short-term rates by 10 basis points, which pulled down long-term borrowing costs and bond yields. The move follows Beijing’s release of a policy document on Sunday outlining its ambitions for the economy.
Investors seemed underwhelmed with the move, in part as it only emphasized how weak the economy was, and Chinese blue chips slipped 0.8%.
“Basically all the fundamental factors point to the fact that China needs a lower rate environment, especially the real rate is really high…in this kind of disinflationary environment,” said Gary Ng, Asia-Pacific senior economist at Natixis in Hong Kong.
“I think the general trend is that it’s pretty much in line with the fact that the economy is not that great, and it seems that there’s a bit of urgency from the authorities to stimulate it now.”
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost another 1.0%, having shed 3% last week.
Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.1% and South Korea’s benchmark index fell 1.5%. Taiwan was having another tough session with a loss of 2.4%.
Investors seemed much better prepared for news President Biden would drop out of the election race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic ticket.
Online betting site PredictIT showed pricing for a victory by Donald Trump had fallen 4 cents to 60 cents, while Harris climbed 12 cents to 39 cents. California governor Gavin Newsom, another possible Democratic challenger, trailed at 4 cents.
Markets took the news in their stride, with S&P 500 stock futures nudging up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures added 0.2%. Futures for 10-year Treasuries rose 2 ticks, while 10-year bond yields dipped 1 basis point to 4.23%.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both edged up 0.2%.
“As Trump’s polling results have lifted, markets have favoured positions that anticipate more trade barriers and possibly higher inflation,” ANZ analysts said.
“Some polls have Harris performing better than Biden against Trump, and the Democrats will be hoping the next polls feature a Harris-driven bump.”
EYE ON EARNINGS
A packed week of corporate earnings will see Tesla and Google-parent Alphabet kick off the season for the “Magnificent Seven” megacap group of stocks.
Others reporting include General Electric, General Motors, Ford and Lockheed Martin.
The tech sector is projected to increase year-over-year earnings by 17%, while profit for the communication services sector is seen rising about 22%.
Such gains would outpace the 11% estimated rise for the S&P 500 overall, according to LSEG IBES.
A busy week for economic news will culminate with the Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation measure out on Friday. The core personal consumption expenditures index is seen rising 0.1% in June, pulling the annual pace down a tick to 2.5%.
Markets are wagering heavily that a benign outcome will firm the case for a September rate cut, which futures are pricing as a 97% chance.
Also due are figures for advance gross domestic product that are forecast to show growth picking up to an annualised 1.9% in the second quarter, from 1.4% in the first.
The closely watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator points to growth of 2.7%, suggesting some risk to the upside.
The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and is considered almost certain to cut its rates by a quarter point to 4.5%.
In currency markets, the dollar gave back just a little of last week’s safe haven gains as the euro edged up 0.1% to $1.0890. The dollar was flat on the Japanese yen at 157.51.
In commodity markets, gold held at $2,407 an ounce and not far from last week’s record high of $2,483.60.
Oil prices inched higher, with scant sign of progress on a ceasefire deal in Gaza as Israeli forces battled Palestinian fighters in the southern city of Rafah on Sunday.
Brent gained 22 cents to $82.85 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 36 cents to $80.49 per barrel.