The non-proliferation environment of Northeast Asia is changing as Russia’s war with Ukraine continues into its third year and the Korean Peninsula becomes more hostile. As discussions on the nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula have re-emerged, developments will not only alter the current status quo – which has kept the region free of direct conflict – but also has the potential to change the architecture of the non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and negatively impact the economy. 

Northeast Asian state actors – including Russia, Mongolia, China, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea – have been free of direct conflicts with each other since the end of the Cold War. The region’s experience in World War II and the Cold War is reflected in each country’s defense, security, and foreign policy concepts and working mechanisms. 

However, Russia’s war with Ukraine and its security alliance with North Korea changed certain dynamics of Northeast Asia’s security architecture. 

The resulting insecurities are forcing regional and global actors to seek alternatives, such as increasing defense spending and military exercises, and even withdrawing from the NPT to acquire nuclear weapons. North Korea made the latter choice in the early 2000s, and South Korea is increasingly tempted to do the same. Understandably, Seoul’s possible pursuit of nuclear weapons may be for defense purposes; however, nuclearization can create a domino effect, which ultimately changes the architecture of the NPT and how member states respond to security threats. 

Moreover, these moves do not support nor help global commitment to peace and security. Instead, such choices will further reduce conflict mitigation and de-escalation efforts by non-nuclear states like Mongolia.  

In 1992, Mongolia declared itself to be a nuclear-weapons-free zone. The declaration itself was an indication of Mongolia’s peaceful foreign policy, which has been presented in continued efforts to advance peace on the Korean Peninsula.

In a June 2024 report to the United Nations’ Office for Disarmament Affairs, Mongolia’s government highlighted its “ its commitment to maintaining international peace and security,” not only by upholding its NPT commitment, signed in 1969, but also by its leading contribution to U.N. Peacekeeping missions. 

“Mongolia has made considerable efforts to strengthen international peace and security and achieved success in the past 32 years since it declared its territory a nuclear-weapon-free zone,” the report began. Mongolia also joined the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in 2022, which its government said demonstrated Mongolia’s “firm commitment to the nuclear-weapon-free world.”

Mongolia has pledged to maintain its status as a non-nuclear weapons state of the NPT. As part of its multi-pillared foreign policy, Ulaanbaatar persistently pushes for soft power, peaceful negotiations, and dialogues between conflicting parties. The rising security concerns and uncertainties, both in its immediate region and around the world, position Ulaanbaatar in an even more difficult position geopolitically. Nuclearization will make it difficult for any peace negotiations to take place.

The nuclearization of Northeast Asia also poses a major issue for the international community, particularly concerning the NPT itself.

As security experts at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation noted, “From Bill Clinton to Joe Biden, no American president has successfully brought about a limitation or reduction in nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula.” Despite U.S. efforts to pursue denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, things have progressed in the opposite direction, with North Korea continuously advancing its nuclear program and South Korea openly discussing acquiring nuclear weapons. 

At this point, regional actors such as Japan, South Korea, and China may take things into their own hands. This will increase the arms trade and the use of hard-power approaches. 

If Seoul pursues nuclear armament, it will need to first withdraw from the NPT. This could lead to not only international sanctions but also harm South Korea’s economic partnerships in the region and globally. 

Moreover, these changes will reshape political, economic, and security dynamics not just for the region but globally. Already, China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal and Japan is pursuing an offensive “counter-strike” capability for the first time since World War II. 

The peace and security of Northeast Asia has a ripple effect on the Asia-Pacific and each state’s economic ties to the rest of the world. The Asian continent is projected to account for more than 50 percent of global gross domestic product by 2040. As trade-dependent economies such as Japan and South Korea want to continue the upward trend, changes in the status quo will harm the global economy. 

In light of increasing talks about the nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, global powers, especially regional actors, must carefully consider the ways in which nuclearization can impact the region’s overall stability. While North Korea’s nuclear threat continues to be an issue, cementing nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula may not be the best solution. 

The increasing tensions in Northeast Asia will force regional states to proliferate. This disturbing trend has the potential to change the underlying principles and concepts to which many of the regional and international community adhere, especially when it comes to nuclear weapons.