Since stepping into the White House barely two weeks ago, Donald Trump’s administration has lived up to expectations by slashing USAID programs, slapping tariffs on major trading partners, and issuing a list of demands for the rest of the world to follow.

Within Southeast Asia, deep cuts to USAID have already resulted in the suspension or curtailing of a wide range of programs targeting land mine clearance, health services for refugees, and education, forcing the region’s governments to reach into their own pockets if those humanitarian needs are to be met.

Bart Édes, professor of practice at McGill University and distinguished fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, spoke to The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt about the prospects for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its 10 member states under Trump’s radically reshaped foreign policy.

He says disruptions to supply chains should be expected, particularly among major exporters like Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

“Thailand and the rest of the world are going to have to get used to the fact that Trump earnestly wants to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.,” he said.

Control over the South China Sea will remain a top priority and war-torn Myanmar – where ASEAN has failed to have any meaningful impact – could also move into focus given the junta’s relationship with Beijing and the prospect of China putting boots on the ground.

How smaller and less developed countries like Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam fare will depend upon their relationship with Beijing, as the big power rivalry between the U.S. and China intensifies, threatening to divide ASEAN even further.