The agreement is “very likely to resemble, in its broad contours, the phase one trade deal negotiated between 2017 and 2020, and at the heart of that was a substantial purchase of US agricultural and industrial goods”, said Stephen Biegun, deputy secretary of state under Donald Trump from 2019 to 2021, at the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday.

Under the deal struck in 2020, China agreed to buy an additional US$200 billion worth of American goods and services over two years compared to 2017 levels. Much of that deal did not materialise, partly due to the economic devastation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic that began soon after the agreement was signed.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the current trade negotiations, has cited Beijing’s failure to meet its commitments as something to “take into account” – and called the phase one deal a “road map” for current talks.

Explaining why he expects a similar framework this time, Biegun said Chinese officials have recognised that they have to “pay a certain price” to create “at least some temporary balance in the US-China trade relationship”.

“The [US] president uses the trade balance as his singular yardstick to measure the economic fairness in bilateral relations with any country around the world, including allies,” Biegun explained. “And it’s no different in the case of China.”