Summary:

• Vance says Trump ready to resume Iran strikes if talks fail, per social media citing Al Jazeera; WSJ later reported Trump has been briefed on full-scale war options but is sticking with diplomacy for now, tolerant of the August 18 deadline slipping
• Oil rangebound, gold slips back under US$4,000
• BoJ Tankan shows big manufacturer sentiment at +22, its best since 2018, and big non-manufacturer sentiment at +37, its best since 1991, both beating forecasts; inflation expectations also crept higher
• Japan’s manufacturing PMI hit 54.8, best quarterly performance since 2014
• Yen extends slide to a fresh 40-year low above 162.75, as the broader dollar firms on higher yields
• China’s RatingDog PMI eased to 51.7 but capped the sector’s strongest quarter since 2020
• Trump’s financial disclosure shows over $1 billion in combined crypto income, largely from his $TRUMP coin
• Nike beat estimates but flagged a tougher consumer backdrop, shares fell
• US Commerce Department lifts export controls on Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos AI models, weeks after ordering their suspension over national security concerns

Geopolitics and oil

The Iran story took a sharper edge today. Vance was reported, via social media citing Al Jazeera, as saying Trump is ready to resume strikes, framing Washington’s choice as either a long-term deal conditioned on Iran changing its behaviour or simply locking in the gains already made. He said the US wants permanent, verifiable commitments on denuclearisation, backed by ongoing inspections rather than a one-off declaration. That was followed later by a Wall Street Journal report offering some reassurance: Trump has been briefed on options for a full return to war but has chosen, for now, to stick with talks, and is comfortable letting negotiations run past the August 18 deadline for a nuclear deal. Despite the war-risk headlines, oil stayed rangebound through the session, while gold slipped back under US$4,000.

Japan

A busy day out of Tokyo. The BoJ’s Tankan showed corporate sentiment running well ahead of expectations, with the big manufacturer index at +22, its strongest since 2018, and big non-manufacturers at +37, the best reading since 1991. Inflation expectations also nudged higher across every time horizon, reinforcing the case that price pressures are becoming more entrenched. That was reinforced by the manufacturing PMI, which rose to 54.8, capping Japan’s best quarterly performance since 2014, powered by the fastest new order growth since January 2022. None of that strength has helped the yen, though, which extended its slide to a fresh 40-year low above 162.75 against the dollar, with the broader dollar also firmer on the back of higher yields, even if moves stayed within limited ranges.

China

China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 51.7 in June, but the softer headline print still capped the sector’s strongest quarter since 2020, with input cost inflation cooling and hiring picking up pace.

Company and policy news

Nike’s fiscal Q4 and full-year numbers beat Wall Street estimates on paper, but a soft revenue picture and cautious guidance sent shares lower. Management pointed to a more complex macro backdrop weighing on store traffic and discretionary spending globally, with a deceleration in North American retail sales trends emerging by mid-April as consumers came under pressure. Trump’s own financial disclosure landed too, showing more than $1 billion in combined crypto income, the bulk of it tied to his $TRUMP meme coin. And in tech policy, the US Commerce Department lifted export controls on Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos AI models, just under three weeks after ordering the company to suspend access over national security concerns.